Scientific publications

The European Union’s (EU) climate strategy, anchored in the European Green Deal, the Fit-for-55 package, and the updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), requires a rapid transformation of the energy system to meet the legally binding target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and a 55% reduction by 2030 relative to 1990 levels. Yet, how national plans align with EU-wide ambition, alongside the implications for investment, infrastructure, and power-system operation, remain insufficiently assessed. We address this gap by linking an EU-specific implementation of a prominent integrated assessment model with Member State-level disaggregation (GCAM-Europe) with a higher-resolution European electricity system model (EXPANSE). This modelling framework captures national heterogeneity, sectoral detail, and spatiotemporal variability in electricity demand, renewable supply, and storage, enabling the assessment of grid investments and infrastructure. We analyse four scenarios representing EU-wide (Fit-for-55) or national (NECP) targets, implemented through explicit policies (POLICY) or cost-optimal carbon caps (COST_OPTIMAL). 

As global climate policy intensifies, emissions-intensive industries like steel face a critical challenge: how to balance deep decarbonization with economic competitiveness. Our study uses an innovative, modified integrated assessment model to explore how carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) can reduce carbon leakage, support the transition to low-carbon technologies, and shape global steel trade dynamics under ambitious climate targets. In contrast to existing literature, it explores the net effect of CBAM in a context where steel producers are exempted from carbon pricing otherwise, touching upon the policy reality in which decarbonisation occurs within the context of national industrial policy.

Key insights include:
• CBAMs can meaningfully reduce emissions leakage when paired with pricing of direct steel emissions.
• Policy design matters — nuances like free emission allowances, export rebates, and technology subsidies significantly affect competitiveness, trade flows, and emission outcomes.
• Our findings provide data-driven guidance for policymakers and industry stakeholders navigating the trade-off between decarbonization and industrial strategy.

As nations and regions consider carbon pricing tools to meet their climate commitments, this work highlights the complex interplay between climate policy, global trade, and industrial transformation.

Socio-technical transitions literature has so far engaged very little with the question of how international institutions could foster transitions. Conversely, international climate policy literature shows gaps in engaging with transformational change. To address these gaps, this article analyses the potential of the first Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement to foster transitions. The article first develops a novel conceptual framework for how international institutions can promote transitions. On this basis, the article synthesises recommendations for the GST outcome from literature and the GST process and compares them with the actual outcome. The article finds that the GST sent important signals and fostered knowledge and learning on key aspects of low-emission transitions. However, it mostly focused on energy systems and failed to establish mechanisms and resources to promote actual implementation.